Fast and Slow Thinking: The Human Factor in a Rapidly Changing World
We are in the midst of a modeling revolution, with numerical weather prediction models showing the ability to accurately predict not just synoptic scale patterns but mesoscale precipitation features days in advance. Concurrently, artificial intelligence and machine learning models are showing impressive forecast results. Yet we know from long experience that a community of skilled professionals remains the foundation of the scientific enterprise and add value to weather, water and climate forecasts and their effective communication to the public. We are the ones who contribute across the spectrum of activities that advance the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, and applications. It is timely to focus attention on the human factor during the 2026 American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting.
The human mind is a complex organ within the body. Some have called the mind the most complex structure in the universe, and it guides our actions and decisions. It is not surprising that our decision-making process also is complex. Numerous studies over the past few decades have shown that the way we think can be separated into two systems: System 1 is fast and intuitive, while System 2 is slower, deliberative, and logical (Kahneman, 2011). Most importantly, the decision-making process is strongly influenced by which system is used. System 1 thinking is our default and often leads to overconfidence and bias, resulting in poorer decisions. Better decisions are made using System 2, but conscious effort is required to activate it.
The importance of our decisions to public safety, economic prosperity, and sustainability continue to grow and there are methods to help us benefit more from System 2 thinking. Many of these methods we already use: decision aides (e.g., flow charts, rubrics), conceptual models, manual data analysis, and verification. Yet we can learn to better use these tools to maximize the quality and reliability of our decisions, minimize our biases, engage everyone on your team, and even become a more diverse community of professionals. Join us to learn how to become a better thinker!
Ways to engage with this theme include sessions on the history, accuracy, and improvements of conceptual models; forecast decision aides; forecaster-over-the-loop and ways to blend human and machine predictions; benefits of manual data analysis to the forecast or evaluation process; verification and ways to leverage verification information to improve forecaster expertise and performance, data assimilation, model skill, and economic benefit; methods to minimize bias in decisions; hiring and retention practices for all career levels; and team building approaches.
This meeting will include a variety of talks on mental health issues and professional and personal development to assist us as we tackle upcoming challenges and adapt to our ever-changing world.