Presenter(s):
Lance Wilson, Scientific Programmer, Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey, Marine Meteorology Division, via DeVine Consulting, Inc.
Description:
This presentation provides an overview of PyroCAST, the PyroCumulonimbus (PyroCb) Atmospheric Assessment Tool. PyroCbs are a dangerous type of fire weather that produce immediate hazards to firefighters and aircraft, and longer-term impacts on the climate system due to high-altitude smoke injection. To mitigate some of these risks, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has created a machine learning-trained algorithm that uses thermodynamic profiles from the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) to provide probabilistic guidance for pyroCb development near wildfires. This algorithm fills an immediate community need as a “nowcasting tool” to identify the probability of pyroCb development over specific fire events with lead times of 0-12 hours. PyroCAST guidance is provided in near real-time from multiple web displays, including an NRL-hosted website and as a layer within the RealEarth™ NGFS collection. PyroCAST will be tested and demonstrated this summer as part of the INSPYRE field campaign.
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